The logical fallacy of anecdotal evidence.

Here is the mini-essay I sent to my Realtor. His name is also Steve.

Subject Line: something to pass on to the other Realtor perhaps


11:27 AM (22 hours ago)


Steve, perhaps it would help the negotiations along if the sellers understood that we are not merely gouging them for pricing concessions. The house is not in perfect condition. In addition to having a very undesirable roofing material, it has a potential time-bomb with those polybutylene pipes. Just because the pipes haven't failed yet, doesn't mean they won't. The bulk of evidence suggests that a plumbing failure is not a question of "If" but rather "When".

Anecdotal evidence is a very common logical fallacy.

"The expression anecdotal evidence refers to evidence from anecdotes. Because of the small sample, there is a larger chance that it may be unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases. "[emphasis mine]

Article Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

"[L]ater studies revealed that plastics containing the resin deteriorate when exposed to chlorine or chlorinated water. Due to this fact, the polymer acetal fittings were replaced by the use of copper or brass fittings. Even after the replacement of the acetal fittings, PB leaks continued. Due to the rising concern with the pipe, Shell, HCC, and DuPont formed the Consumer Plumbing Recovery Center in an attempt to deal with customer complaints. The center was later use to handle the claims resulting from class action lawsuits brought against the manufacturers. The largest of the class action suits and one of the largest suits in US history is the Cox vs. Shell settlement of $950 million in 1995." [emphasis mine]

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/3597523

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. I'm sorry the sellers did not get the manufacturers of this product to replace this faulty product before the 2009 deadline for compensated repairs.

In essence, they are asking us to pay their asking price, plus the price of the repairs to the plumbing system, plus the oiling of the roof. If we compare this house to others currently on the market, most homes do NOT have a plumbing system that was the subject of one of the largest class action lawsuits in US history. Most homes we are looking at have a 40 or 50 year composite roof that will not need replacing in our lifetime. Many of the homes we are looking at have windows which have already been exchanged for more energy-efficient vinyl. When we factor in these issues, it makes the Sunny Way home more expensive. I suppose the sellers could roll the dice with other buyers and hope that they didn't read the disclosures or hire a home inspector. I have to believe that any other buyer with access to the Internet would arrive at the same conclusion that we did. The pipes must be replaced before we would ever move our belongings into that house. That's just common-sense. That is the reason for our counter-offer.